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Sabtu, 05 Februari 2011

Some final tips


Don't be afraid to back very short odds. I aimed to maintain a 95%+ strike-rate when I traded the financials, and I had no problems backing 1.03 or 1.02 for £3000 if I knew that I could lay it back at 1.01 a few minutes later for a guaranteed profit. I've even been known to lay one side at prices upto 250 because I knew that sometimes just seconds later, I could back it back for 1000. You won't get filthy rich using this method alone but you will build your bank up nicely over time. Obviously you shouldn't just back short odds at random, as they do sometimes get turned over. You have to be sure that there's no other factors that could suddenly cause a sharp move, and weigh up the risks. Often the only factor holding the price up is time, and therefore if you don't think the underlying price will move much in the near future than you can be sure of backing now and laying back later on for a guaranteed profit.
If you can always green up. This is a term often used by fellow betfairians, and basically means having equal profits whatever the outcome. For example, let's say that you've backed the FTSE to finish up at 1.3 for £100, so you'll win £30 if up, and lose £100 if down. The FTSE moves nicely up, and the up price can now be layed at 1.02. Unless I was absolutely certain that there was no chance whatsoever of me losing the bet, I would always recommend laying the bet off to lock in a profit. Therefore, in this example, you should lay off £128 at 1.02, giving you a profit of £27.44 if up and £28.00 if down. If the FTSE does subsequently move further up, you could always try and do a quick momentum trade, eg back at 1.01/1.02 and back the down at 250/500, and squeeze out a bit more profit.
The intradays can be quite daunting at first, so I would recommend waiting until the last quarter of the hour before opening a position to start with. By then you will have a clear picture of what's happened so far, and where the FTSE is likely to finish. You've also got the time factor mentioned above on your side. My intraday tactic was to simply watch the market for at least twenty minutes before taking a position, as by then I've usually got a good feel from the streaming chart and the associated indicators of where it was heading.
Don't bet just for the sake of it, and if you lose don't chase profits. I can't emphasise these two points enough. If you're disciplined and use good strong strategies, then you will make good long-term profits. However, the occasional loss is inevitable, and it's how you handle these losses that ultimately defines how successful you will be.

Develop your own trading style. The methods I've mentioned in this article are just the methods that I used to make profits. However, if you ask any other successful Betfair trader, they will probably have totally different methods. For example, I made a lot of money from trading short price odds, and very rarely traded the first twenty minutes of an intraday market. Therefore I rarely backed anything above about 1.6 because my aim was always to make sure I won every single bet I placed. However, there's probably successful traders who make a good living laying short odds when the time's right or make successful predictions at the start of each hour when the high prices are available.Finally, in my experience, charts and indicators are great and will help you to find winning trades, but most of the time intuition, and simply following the money will reap equally great rewards.

That's it. You should now have enough resources and ideas to at least get you started in the potentially lucrative world of financial trading. If you have any questions you'd like to ask me, please go to the contact page and send an email to the listed address. Alternatively, you can visit the "Financials" section of the Betfair forum.

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